The start of the 2023 NFL season has been anything but easy on the nerves of “Big Easy” sports bettors, with the New Orleans Saints’ first three games decided by a collective five points.
New Orleans has been on the winning side of those slim margins twice but came up a point short in Green Bay last week and left Lambeau Field without their starting quarterback. Derek Carr suffered a shoulder injury which has backup QB Jameis Winston taking snaps against his former team in Week 4.
The Saints welcome the rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the Superdome on a short week, with the Bucs still licking their wounds from a 25-11 loss at home to Philadelphia on Monday night. That pulled the curtain back on Tampa’s 2-0 start to the schedule and has the Buccaneers set as field goal underdogs in NOLA this Sunday.
I dissect the spread and Over/Under total for this NFC South showdown and give my best NFL picks and predictions for the Buccaneers at Saints on October 1.
Buccaneers vs Saints odds
Buccaneers vs Saints predictions
Points have been harder to come by in New Orleans than sober people at Mardi Gras.
The Saints, who finished 2022 averaging only 19.4 points, are stuck in that same rut with outputs of 20, 17, and 16 points in the first three contests of 2023. That’s led to a perfect 3-0 for anyone betting the Under for NOLA’s team total.
With the starting quarterback out of action, you would think another Under TT would be on the way in the Big Easy. Jameis Winston is no ordinary backup, however.
Winston is a high-risk, high-reward passer with a big arm who can utilize an underrated Saints receiving corps — a group that was never healthy when Winston was at full strength as the QB1. Despite the lack of points, this NOLA passing game is 12th in overall success rate.
Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed have all had their time to shine in Pete Carmichael’s offense, which could look to stretch the field after some bland play calling in last week’s collapse to the Packers.
This would be the game to do it, with Tampa Bay’s defense sucking wind after playing almost 39 minutes against a physical Eagles attack on Monday. The Buccaneers are allowing seven yards per pass attempt and could be missing their two starting cornerbacks in Week 4.
Carlton Davis III is questionable with a toe injury that has kept him out of action and Jamel Dean left Monday’s game with a shoulder injury. The status of those starters doesn’t look good, considering the team is frantically working out replacements ahead of Week 4.
Another headache the Bucs have to deal with in New Orleans is the return of Saints dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara, who sat out the opening three weeks due to suspension.
Kamara injects this offense with another layer, able to make plays on the ground and through the air, giving the Saints a needed lift on third downs. He’ll also help the Saints snap out of their red zone funk after scoring touchdowns on only four of their 10 total trips this season.
Winston’s explosiveness, the Bucs’ banged-up secondary, and Kamara’s return should all be boosted by the fact the Saints are playing this game on the fast track inside the Superdome, compared to the last two outings in outdoor venues.
New Orleans averaged almost a field goal more per game at home last season, finishing 5-4 O/U on team totals compared to 4-4 TT O/U on the road.
New Orleans’ current team total for Week 4 ranges from 20.5 (Over -130) to 22 (Over -116) as of Thursday morning, giving us a pretty good number on the Over below the key spot of three touchdowns.
My best bet: Saints team total Over 20.5 (-130 at Pinnacle)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Buccaneers vs Saints same-game parlay
Saints TT Over 20.5Saints MLJuwan Johnson Over 2.5 receptions
+280 at bet365
Jameis’ big arm can make the most of this talented receiving corps against a tired Tampa defense that could be missing its two starting CBs.
Laying the points with the Saints has been painful in close games, so we’ll stick to the outright odds.
Juwan Johnson will be Winston’s check-down as he gets his timing back. He was targeted just four times in Week 3, but three of those passes came when Winston took over under center in the third quarter.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Buccaneers vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead lines in the summer listed New Orleans as a big 6-point home favorite with Tampa Bay expected to struggle in 2023. But after the Bucs knocked off Minnesota and Chicago in their opening games, that look-ahead spread was trimmed to Saints -3.5.
New Orleans fell 18-17 at Green Bay, blowing a 17-0 lead in the second half with QB Derek Carr leaving the game with a shoulder injury and Winston taking his place under center. The Saints were shut out in the final 30 minutes and allowed 18 fourth-quarter points to the Packers.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was roughed up by a very physical Philadelphia side and fell 25-11 on Monday Night Football — a score that could have been a lot worse had the Eagles cashed in more red-zone chances.
The official Week 4 line came out at NOLA -3 and as of Thursday morning, there are some -3.5 spreads out there as well as plenty of expensive field goal lines.
My NFL power ratings projected a much higher handicap — before adjustments for the QB swap — which is more in step with the summer spread. Covers Consensus shows 58% of mid-week picks on the home team.
The Saints defense has been the backbone of this team through the opening three games. New Orleans ranks 10th in EPA per play and No. 4 in Defensive DVOA, while stepping up in key spots like third downs (31.82%) and inside the red zone (33.33%).
The same can’t be said for the offense, however. New Orleans grades out in the middle of the pack for most offensive analytics and has whiffed when closing in on the end zone. The Saints are just 4-for-10 on red-zone possessions, which has led to outputs of 20, 17, and 16 points so far. That lack of scoring has burned NOLA bettors with a 0-2-1 ATS mark so far.
Tampa Bay’s offense came off the tracks on Monday, finally facing a quality stop unit after beating up on the Bears and getting the benefit of five turnovers from Minnesota in Week 1. The Bucs had only 12 first downs and averaged a mere four yards per play versus Philadelphia, holding possession for just over 21 minutes.
That has the Bucs defense running on fumes entering Week 4, logging close to 39 minutes on Monday and now having to travel to Louisiana for this divisional matchup. Tampa Bay’s defensive metrics are beefed up by that Week 2 run-in with Chicago, but this unit allowed 472 and 369 yards in its two other outings.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield fell back to earth after two solid showings to kick off 2023. He was hounded by the Eagles defense and finished with 146 yards, two sacks, and an interception in Week 3. The Saints bring more blitz than Philly and love to cause a lot of chaos at the line of scrimmage, which has led to four interceptions this year.
The Over/Under total opened as low as 39.5 points and was a popular Over bet among sharps early in the week, driving this number as high as 40.5 as of Thursday morning.
Covers Consensus is reporting 57% of early picks coming in on the Under, with NOLA going well below the total in all three games so far and the Buccaneers staying Under the closing total of 44 points versus Philly on Monday.
Both offenses do sit in the back half of the offensive pace ratings, with Tampa Bay running the eighth slowest tempo in terms of seconds per play while New Orleans ranks 13th slowest in tempo and rarely runs any no-huddle sets.
While Tampa’s offense was very different with Tom Brady under center the past three years, the Under has been the more profitable play in this NFC South rivalry. The Bucs and Saints have stayed below the closing total in three straight meetings and in five of their past six showdowns, going back to November 2020.
